Military research unit financial crisis Early Warning System

[Abstract] military Research units in China's national defense construction is an important position, effectively preventing Financial Risks is essential. In this paper, movement of funds flow on the military Research units to analyze the flow of funds, and on this basis, build a military Research units The financial crisis early warning system.

[Keywords:] military Research unit of financial crisis early warning system, movement of funds flow

Military Research unit is run and the creation of national defense science and technology institutions in the country at an important position in national defense. Military research unit of the Financial Risk is the military research units in various financial activities, a variety of unpredictable or uncontrollable factors There, the financial position is uncertain, so the actual expected return of financial gains and losses occurring or get off the excess profits of the opportunities or possibilities.

Since 1997, reform of financial systems and institutions, the state of the military research unit of the implementation of "fixed or targeted subsidies, cost overruns have not been replaced, the balance retained," the budget management system, military and scientific research institutions as part of each year financial assistance in addition to income, all other type of income will have to be obtained by participating in market competition. While this market is relatively closed, but in the market, will inevitably be a variety of macro factors, such as the legal environment, Economic environment and social environment. these many factors change directly or indirectly affect the financial management of military research units work to Financial Risk, and even financial crisis. Thus, in military research institutes to establish the financial crisis early warning system to guard against Financial Risks is essential.


First, the connotation of financial crisis

A state of alert is a measure of the strength of line level departure warning, early warning signals. The financial crisis early warning system is a modern unit of risk prediction and prevention is an important tool. It is a lot of information gathering, based on the use of computer technology, information technology, probability theory and fuzzy mathematics method to set the risk early warning indicator system and the alarm level, the amount of capture and monitor a variety of subtle signs of change in the nature and extent of the risk of various timely alerts to remind policy makers to take timely preventive and defuse measures. financial crisis early warning system has the following characteristics.


1, in the light of
According to the law of development units and structural features selected from a number of indicators can be sensitive, accurate and reflects the developments and changes in unit risk indicators and indicator system, the use of the basic principles of mathematical statistics and other indicators of knowledge and indicators for measurement, reflecting the development of the unit Agency's financial status, indicator or reference for decision-makers.


2, the predictive
Financial crisis early warning system can predict the financial situation of units of trends and changes, provide the basis for scientific decision-making, decision-makers can minimize the mistakes, you can find the weak links within the unit, you can dynamically control the unit, found from the dynamic solve problems in order to achieve dynamic control, to solve the problem in the bud.


3, unique
Financial crisis early warning system must be based on the actual situation of the unit to design and implement, it would be difficult to effectively play its early warning role.


Second, the military research unit of the financial crisis early warning system, operation mechanism and construction ideas

1, the operating mechanism
(1) Monitoring. Tracing the course of business defense scientific research units, monitoring units daily financial position, financial units in the hazard key factors appears, find the signal in advance to find out the cause of deviation and the deviation occurs in order to seek an early measures.

(2) diagnosis. According to tracking and detection, the unit's actual financial condition and financial situation of the industry or standards were analyzed to identify leading causes deterioration of financial operations units, and units in the operation of the root cause of defects and their location.

(3) control. The error correction unit in operation or fault, the unit returned to the normal operation of the orbit, the mining unit of all available channels for the creation of internal funds and external financial resources, the discovery of the financial crisis to prevent the continued deterioration of the control its sphere of influence.

(4) prevention. Is to avoid a similar situation from happening again. System crises detailed records, processing and settlement process, as a warning, and enhance immune units.


2, construction ideas
Military research object of the financial management of its funds and flows. Cash flow start and end is the cash and other assets are cash flow in the transformation of the form. Cash is broad in cash, including cash, bank deposits and to readily realizable marketable securities and so on. funds flow is a dynamic process, campaign financing flow chart can be used for analysis.

Campaign funds flow chart is a dynamic analysis method, which according to the process of social reproduction of capital in the business process with the continuous cycle of turnover, the form of money changing business processes along with the characteristics of this movement, movement of funds flow analysis, and then integrated the unit may be subject to various risks, key areas of analysis and control. author based on the general characteristics of the military research units, research units drawn military campaign funds flow chart shown in Figure 1.


Commitment to military research units as the main task of national defense scientific research units in national defense research management system reform, the main task has been to assume national program of scientific research, production, sales, service and other business and comprehensive development changes. Figure 1 shows, military research unit movement of capital, compared with the general business has its own unique aspects and characteristics of the circulation. for these features and links, combined with traditional financial analysis and international scholars on the financial crisis early warning systems research, the author constructed military research units of the financial crisis early warning system. Links to Research Papers Download http://www.hi138.com Third, the financial crisis, military research unit of the specific content of an early warning system

The work of the financial early warning system largely based on the monitoring of various financial indicators based on the financial crisis early warning system is the key to financial analysis to determine the value of indicators and alert. According to military research unit of capital flow movement can be analyzed , there are risks, including debt service links the main part, asset management links, links and investment aspects of fund management, the financial crisis early warning system can be carried out from the following links.


1, the debt links
Debt link research units exist in the military risks of inability to repay maturing debt, debt risk assessment aspects of the following indicators can be used for testing.

(1) asset-liability ratio = Total liabilities / total assets × 100%, this indicator reflects the overall solvency of the unit.

(2) Current ratio = current assets / current liabilities × 100%, this indicator reflects the short-term solvency of the unit.

(3) Cash ratio = monetary funds / current liabilities × 100%, this indicator reflects the short-term solvency of the unit in cash.

(4) long-term capital debt ratio = Long-term debt / (long-term liabilities + owner's equity), this indicator reflects the long-term capital structure of the unit.


2, asset management links
Military research and asset management is an important part of the financial management, funds may occur in this part of the backlog, cash flow problems of risk. Asset Management part of the risk assessment can be used to test several targets.

(1) Total Assets Turnover = (Revenue + technology research and product sales revenue + income) / Average total assets × 100%, this indicator reflects the average total assets of the unit operating times, reflecting the overall operational efficiency of assets.

(2) Inventory Turnover = (Revenue + technology research and product sales revenue + income) / average inventory balance of × 100%, this indicator reflects the rate of inventory turnover of the unit.

(3) Fixed asset turnover = (Revenue + technology research and product sales revenue + income) / average balance of fixed assets × 100%, this indicator reflects the fixed assets of the unit operational efficiency and transformation speed.

(4) Accounts receivable turnover = (Revenue + technology research and product sales revenue + income) / average accounts receivable balance × 100%, this indicator reflects the turnover rate of accounts receivables.


3, the fund management links
With the national Economic system in transition, military research units rely mainly on state funds by the budget changes to the diversification of funding sources. Links that may exist in the funds management policy changes and the balance of financial assistance, the proportion of management fees paid risk adjustment, you can use the following indicators to be tested.

(1) financial self-sufficiency rate = (research and technical income + income + other operating income + affiliates turned over to the sales revenue + revenue + other operating income + other operating income) / (research and technology costs + cost + cost + other business units of subsidiary grant expenditure + cost of goods sold + other operating costs + expenses + other expenses paid at higher levels) × 100%, this indicator reflects the capacity of the units of organization of income to meet recurrent expenditure and income level of the index.

(2) put in place the funding ratio = current amount of funding has come / the number of annual budget appropriations × 100%, this indicator evaluation of the budget year to complete the funding, because funding is in place to ensure the normal development of research activities and guarantee the basic premise.

(3) completion rate of current income current income / total revenue budget for the year × 100%, this indicator evaluation of the units completed during the income situation of the organization.

(4) research funding overruns rate = (amount of current research costs are incurred - total amount of funding period) / total amount of funding the current period × 100%, this indicator should be combined with the scientific mission of the unit for analysis, evaluation of annual research expenditures and the main dial into the relationship, to evaluate the risk of cost overruns of scientific research.


4, the investment links
Military research unit with strong financial, material and self-developed core technologies of foreign investment to achieve capital appreciation, investment risk can be tested using the following indicators.

(1) Foreign investment in expenditure ratio = investment / business fund × 100%, this indicator reflects the unit has a non-restricted net assets in the proportion used for investment and reinvestment capacity.

(2) foreign investment rate of return = investment income / balance of the annual foreign investment × 100%, this indicator reflects the profitability of foreign investment units and investment recovery risk level.


Fourth, the financial crisis early warning system in the military organization set up research units

Units of the financial early warning system to play its expected role, forming a virtuous cycle dynamic, in addition to whether the financial early-warning indicators, the mechanism must also be carried out from the system design, implementation monitoring, diagnosis, treatment and other functions. Military research unit in the financial sector the establishment of early warning of financial analyst jobs, the job can be in charge of accounting, unit senior managers, external consultants and other part-time financial management, may also implement a hand full. Meanwhile, in the unit face is not normal business fluctuations and financial crises Set a temporary state institutions such as the financial crisis management team, financial early warning Advisory Group, the leading group, with its warning in addition to including financial analysts, but also can be drawn from the main functions of the department head or a related capacity members. These staff the unit into a financial crisis and the process is very understanding of the causes, can quickly find out the reasons for the crisis to develop emergency response strategies. the lifting of the financial crisis, along with a temporary agency to withdraw, the financial early warning system of detailed records analysts crisis, processing and settlement process, and continue to complete the daily work of financial control.


[References]
[1] Your Song Qi: Construction of military research institutions of the financial early warning system [J]. Management Science, 2009 (3).

[2] Huang Pengli: Risks of the state-owned enterprises [D]. Northeast University of Finance, 2004.

[3] Nie Yihui: Financial Risk Management of State-owned enterprises [J]. Economic Theory, 2008 (3).

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