Ontology-based early warning system for financial risk

[Abstract] This paper analyzes the Financial Risk early warning system in the body of knowledge needs and knowledge of the role of Financial Risk early warning system, based on the proposal of building a knowledge-based ontology of the Financial Risk of financial early warning system of thought, and by bulk methods to establish Financial Risk warning areas ontology model, constructed knowledge management of Financial Risk early warning system framework.

[Keywords:] risk early warning system; financial knowledge management; body

Financial risk management is an important component of risk management pArt of the embodiment of business risk. Financial Risk Financial risk management is the development of a new phase. The focus of the financial risk early warning is to seize the small-scale, low level of financial risk events and changes in financial position, to take control measures to prevent the risk of small events that triggered the financial crisis, leaving enterprises into .21-century economy is the world economy under the conditions of economic integration, policy-oriented knowledge-based economy. into the knowledge of business management economy, business environment and job content are completely changed, and knowledge management concepts and methods continue to penetrate into the financial management, financial management of innovation as an opportunity. The financial risk early warning is an important technical knowledge dependency work in corporate financial risk management in how to introduce knowledge management concepts and methods, building financial risk early warning system to help managers accurately understand the financial position, risk should guide the work carried out, thereby reducing business risk, reduce financial losses, is the concerns of enterprise managers. In this paper, ontology (ontology) method of warning of financial risk management, exploring scientific, intelligent and systematic financial risk early warning mechanism.


First, the financial risk of ontology-based early warning system needs analysis

Financial Early Warning System is a modern enterprise risk prediction and prevention is an important tool that a lot of Information gathering, based on the use of Computer technology, Information technology, probability theory and fuzzy mathematics method, set the risk early warning system and early warning indicators cordon, capturing and monitoring all kinds of subtle signs of change in the nature and extent of the different financial risks in time alerts to remind policy makers to take timely measures to prevent and mitigate risks. can be seen, the financial risk early warning system, the key is how to establish effective capture internal and external Information and the formation of useful knowledge, knowledge of effective financial risk early warning system should meet the following four points demand.

First, Information collection and conversion. Financial risk early warning system should be through the collection and knowledge of business related to industrial policy, competition in domestic and foreign markets, corporate financial Information and its various production and management information and analysis of conversion, according to a certain forms and rules into the knowledge base.

Second, the early warning indicators of management and update capabilities. The system should establish the financial risk evaluation index system and evaluation based on the formula of which, the use of financial risk information subsystem provides data to calculate the value of specific indicators for comprehensive assessment and early warning use.

Third, the financial risk evaluation function. The system should have worked out the value of various risk indicators, using a variety of scientific evaluation model and prediction model, the current financial risks to enterprises a comprehensive evaluation and risk the future of enterprise forecast. The function is based on the business operation process tracking, monitoring results, the use of modern management techniques and enterprise business diagnostics to judge the merits of the financial situation, identify potential business risk of financial operations.

Fourth, financial risk alarm. The system should have been calculated the risk of reflecting the financial risk index value, the value of comprehensive evaluation and predictive value, the alarm mode in accordance with a certain issue of different levels of alert.

The author in Financial Risk Management of Knowledge in the introduction of the concept of ontology, ontology was originally a philosophical concept, used to study the nature of the objective world. In relation to the concept ontology can be described a more extensive, detailed, thorough and comprehensive, by Add attribute values ​​of concepts, and between the attributes and attribute mapping to add some inconvenience to describe the semantic relationships can clearly describe. Meanwhile, in the form of body language can be used, which is to create the conditions for knowledge retrieval. early warning of financial risks in the formal definition of knowledge, the ontology concept model to achieve knowledge and understanding of financial risk early warning only and accuracy; In addition, the use of ontology technology linked to formal knowledge mapping, and constraints can generate new knowledge rules, increased financial risk early warning of the practical knowledge ontology representation.


Second, the Financial Early Warning System Modeling Ontology

Financial risk through the analysis of the concept of early warning of domain knowledge, relationships and knowledge structure, the idea of ​​using hierarchical domain ontology to establish early warning of financial risks and financial risks were warning of the evaluation model, indicators of financial health monitoring system and formally describe the knowledge and case. model of the system concept of ontology, ontology evaluation model, indicators of ontology, ontology and communication ontology and other resources. The following quantitative model to the concept of financial risk early warning of financial risk early warning as an example ontology ontology modeling.

Ontology is a concept used to describe some basic concepts in the field of the relationship between the body and concepts, these concepts are shared by people in the field recognized, the concept of abstract knowledge of things, including the content is very broad, content associated with the model: relations, functions, axioms and instances, etc.; relations express the concept of the field of financial risk early warning interactions between, n a concept relationship can be expressed as R: Cl × C2 × ... × Cn; The concept of function is a special relationship, that between the n-n-1 identified a concept, the first n concept is unique, the F: Cl × C2 × ... × Cn-1 → Cn; axiom that always true the notion that true proposition; instance is a specific model elements. Financial Risk formal quantitative model concept ontology is defined as follows.

CO:: = (Fn, Cc, R, Ac, Ic).

Where, Fn is the realm name, Cc is the set of terms in the field, R is a relationship set, Ac is a set of axioms, Ic is the instance set.

R formalized as: R:: = (Ra, Rc), Ra is the set of properties on the Cc, formalized as: Ra:: = (dc: Identifier, dc: Title, dc: Creator, dc: Description, dc: Date), said the re-prefix dc DC metadata set identifier, title, creator, description and date elements; Rc is a set of relationships between terms, Rc domain is Cc1 × Cc1, formalized as: Rc:: = (SubConceptOf , SuperConceptOf, IsPArtOf, HasPArt, Equal, Pre, Next), SubConceptOf and SuperConceptOf
Is included, and the relationship to be included, IsPArtof and HasPArt relations are gathered, Equal is an equivalence relation, Pre described the concept and the direct precursor relationship between the concepts, Next describe the concepts and conceptual relationships between the direct successor. Ac is the axiom set, Ac formalized as: Ac:: = (SubConceptOf ≡ SuperConceptOf-, IsPartOf ≡ HasPart-, Pre ≡ Next-, IsPartOf ≡ IsPartof *, HasPart ≡ HasPart *, Equal ≡ Equal *, ... ...), and expressed SubConceptOf SuperConc-
eptOf, IsPartOf and HasPart, Pre and Next are antagonistic relationship, IsPartOf and HasPart and Equal are transitive. Ic formalized as: Ic:: = (IRa, IRc), IRa is the attribute set instance, IRc is the concept of relationship instance.

Concept is an abstract of human knowledge, the concept of ontology is organized in accordance with the classification of the relationship between domain concepts and their objective, the concept of ontology as a kind of ontological existence separate from the domain experts or knowledge engineers to management. The concept of quantitative models of financial risk early warning Ontology described as follows:
Fn = quantitative models of financial risk early warning;
Cc = (Z score model, artificial neural network model, multiple logistic (logit) model, F scoring model ... ...);
IRa = {("Prop1", "Z score model", "Z-score", "will be reflected by indicators of corporate solvency (X1, X4), profitability index (X2, X3) and operational capability index (X5) five kinds of financial ratios of the organic link, comprehensive analysis of corporate financial risk early warning ."),(" Prop2 "," artificial neural network model "," Artificial-Neural-Network "," complicated by a large number of neuronal connections from the bottom to the top by way of learning to self-organization and nonlinear dynamics of the formation of the parallel distributed approach to the financial model of non-verbal information, to target corporate financial risk early warning "), ... ...};
IRc = {SubConceptOf (quantitative models of financial risk early warning, Z score model), SubConceptOf (financial risk early warning quantitative model, artificial neural network model), IsPartOf (Z score model, functional form), IsPartOf (Z score model, the parameter index), IsPartOf (artificial neural network model, the model algorithm), IsPartOf (artificial neural network model, the input matrix), ... ...}.

Links to Research Papers Download http://www.hi138.com Third, the financial risk early warning system framework for knowledge management

Through analysis of ontology-based knowledge model and the financial risk early warning requirements, the proposed financial risk early warning framework for knowledge management system shown in Figure 1.


Basic knowledge management activities, including knowledge creation, discovery, storage and applications, knowledge management, financial risk early warning activities will integrate the financial risk of these early warning knowledge acquisition, knowledge of the financial risk early warning storage and reasoning, application of knowledge of financial risk early warning and early warning three main processes. Financial Risk to business performance-based, fully understand the nature of financial risk, and in the broader field select the relevant early warning indicators, through a comprehensive evaluation of the financial situation of early warning. The model is composed of Financial Risk profitability, solvency, economic efficiency and development potential of the evaluation of four composition, profitability and solvency of the company's financial evaluation of two basic parts, and the level of economic efficiency but also directly reflects the company's management level , the company's growth potential is particularly worth attention, the company's goal is financial wealth maximization, a good financial risk early warning system should not only concerned about the present operating conditions. in the selection of specific aspects of early warning indicators, taking into account the complementarity of both indexes , without duplication, as comprehensively as possible consolidated operating conditions of the company, so each module from each of the two most representative of early warning indicators. system from the perspective of using quantitative and qualitative knowledge of the financial body to evaluate the financial risk of enterprise, risk assessment model using ontology ontology reasoning and knowledge derived from various indicators of financial value, substituted into the establishment of comprehensive evaluation of the financial risk model, risk assessment, specific risk assessment model case base according to the match, select the appropriate models, such as AHP model or fuzzy evaluation model.

Inside and outside the enterprise information integration and knowledge acquisition, we use ontology technology, knowledge integration technology, a variety of search techniques, knowledge of the financial risk early warning of digital semantic processing; system in accordance with Ontology annotation to classify knowledge, organized into Knowledge Base form a set of domain concepts of financial risk early warning; such a framework to facilitate ontology knowledge acquisition, storage, retrieval and other functions, and to facilitate the financial risk early warning knowledge integration, sharing, discovery and reuse. the one hand, from a technical point of this framework for knowledge of the financial risk early warning management of a comprehensive solution; the other hand, through the introduction of ontology, the framework allows a certain degree of knowledge providers and knowledge needs no differences between the proposals as far as possible to understand each other and to express the knowledge available within the organization and knowledge needs of those original ideas. This will make the financial risk early warning knowledge management can be more widely applied to various types of organizations, financial risk management for the organization to provide technical support.

Corporate financial risk management is a complicated systematic project, with the knowledge economy era, the information revolution and economic globalization accelerated the process of growing, knowledge of the financial risk early warning system has broad prospects for development, the growing concern by the people. This body method using domain knowledge modeling financial risk early warning and proposed ontology-based knowledge management framework for early warning of financial risk, financial risk warning in knowledge representation and reasoning aspects need further study. ●

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