Level of information and the power consumption of the relationship between the number of

Paper Keywords: Information, Information measure, Information industry, electricity demand
Abstract: This paper discussed methods of measuring Information on the basis of the Information industry, respectively, perspective and information from the index of information and perspective on the relationship between electricity demand were investigated, draw some preliminary discussion of the conclusions.


1 Measurement of information
Information to the Development of deep Research on the impact of electricity demand, the first to measure the information technology, which is to carry out this Research is an important foundation. Current methods of measuring a lot of information, the main method Porat method , Komatsu, Kawasaki mediated clearance method, the ITU method, information of the integrated index (CIIC, the total national informatization index (NII) and so on. These methods have advantages and disadvantages, the following highlights several of the Institute of information to absorb and adopt Method of Measurement.

1.1 Comprehensive index of information (CIIC
Borat in the full reference method, Komatsu, Kawasaki mediated method, based on clear, Zhong Yixin of China scholars, and put forward comprehensive index of information (Song Ling, 2001). They believe that "information index" includes the ability of information industry, information infrastructure equipment capacity, the use of the level of information infrastructure, information and information level of the main level of consumption of five factors, the specific detailed evaluation of 18 indicators, in order to facilitate the analysis and comparison, it is desirable in a particular year as the base year, the other years of data to the base year to standardize the data as a benchmark, that is:
CIIC (s) = CIIC / CIIC (0)
On where, CIIC (s) is a comprehensive index of information on the standard values, CIIC (s) is a composite index of the value of information technology. According to the above formula can be calculated CIIC value.

1.2 Index System of China Law Information
In 2002, China announced a national informatization index system. Used to measure the level of informatization index system is the index in the index has six sub-index: Development and utilization of information resources, information, networking, popularization and application of information technology, Development of information industry, information technology personnel and information technology Development policy. under the total of the sub-index of 25 specific indicators. integrated score analysis (ie a simple linear weighting method), index information can be obtained.

A recent study (National Statistical Information Center, 2004) have revised the information index system, the new index system consists of five elements: information resources, information infrastructure, information technology human resources, information technology popularization and application and Development of information industry. Calculation method and the weight of each part is also slightly changed. concrete can be found in Reference 2
1.3 The information industry added value (or value)
Development of information industry to a wide range of applications for information technology and services to provide the material basis, therefore, a country or region a certain period the development of information industry size and structure reflects to some extent from country or region of the level of information, which is the earliest Measurement of information technology in particular has a strong vitality Borat Law has been an important reason (of course Borat Law Statistics of the information economy is more broad, not limited to the information industry, specifically refer to the literature. It should be noted that, This is a more narrowly defined measure, only from the perspective of information technology, reflects the industry of a country or region during a certain level of information.

This should also explain the definition of the information industry. With the development of information technology, information technology has gradually formed the industrial trend. But in fact the definition of the information industry is very difficult, modern information technology such as micro computer technology, communications technology, network technology and traditional industries are being gradually integrated, it is difficult to draw clear boundaries between them. Although the division of the information industry at home and abroad are different (square width, 2002), but summarized in two class point of view: one is the narrow information industry, or so-called information technology industry. include information products manufacturing and information services. these industries is the use of modern information technology to provide products or services. The other is the generalized information industry (including not only the production of modern information and services, the traditional information services such as finance, insurance, education, culture, etc. are also included.

Information used in this concept, referring to the modern information technology, especially computer technology, network technology, communication technology in social and economic life of the widely used. Therefore, we have adopted a narrow concept of the information industry.

2 index and the power of information broadcasting and demand analysis of fixed and
Information as countries use different measurement methods consistent with the Research on information technology index also vary considerably, it is difficult to obtain comparable information in other countries the information index, therefore, there mainly as an example of information data and draw on existing information and some index of Research data to explore the information technology index and the relationship between electricity demand.

2.1 use information technology index (CIIC) to examine the relationship between the two
Bin Wang, Zhejiang University reference here, I winter chi index terms in the information part of the Research results (Wang Bin, Yu Dong Qi, 2ooaj, obtained in 1990 as the base year, China's information technology 1990-2002 Composite Index, see Table 4 (specifically, the data can be found in Reference 10, the other to simplify the calculation, the calculation of the five categories of indicators given the same weight).

1990-2002 while the country achieved total electricity consumption data, and the same in 1990 as the base period, calculate the index of total electricity consumption data (data for 1990, 1, 1990, the remaining years of data were obtained by dividing the corresponding year The index value), as follows:

Is evident from Table 4, China's information technology index in the 90's into the 20th century, over time, after showing a trend of constantly increasing during the period from 1990-2002 increased by about 8 times, while the total electricity consumption index grew less than 3 times, seen 13 years of information growing much faster than the growth in electricity demand. use EXCEL to plot the two shown in Figure 3.


It can be seen from Figure 3, in the year 2000, the two were obviously close functional relationship, but after 2000, electricity consumption growth rate increased, which had scattered points upward trend, which presents several linear function.

13 years of information technology to the composite index and the total electricity consumption index data input computer, using information technology index as independent variables X, the total electricity consumption index for the dependent variable Y, the use of SPSS statistical analysis software for various curve fitting found that cubic polynomial function and density function fitting the best, R2 respectively, 0.9925,0.9805, but the cubic polynomial function model quadratic coefficient is -5.142, t test, t test can not, and the 2000 Since the trend of skyrocketing all the way to meet future electricity demand growth is not real. Therefore, we use the density function fitting, the transformation to obtain the following linear logarithmic model:

From the R2 and adjusted R2 can be seen, the model fit better, and by all statistical tests. In the model, we can see, elastic coefficient of 0.4415, which means that information CIIC Composite Index increased by 1 percentage point total electricity consumption index increased 0.4415 percentage points. As the total electricity consumption index is based on the report of the total electricity consumption in 1990 divided by the total electricity consumption reached, total electricity consumption index rose 0.4415 percentage point also explains the reporting period Electricity Consumption Growth 0.4415, obviously, the elasticity coefficient than in the previous text (information development on electricity demand of econometric analysis - from the information industry perspective of the study) analysis of benevolence the sea and other developed areas of the elastic coefficients are higher than the U.S. data is much higher, in line with reality, therefore, the parameters have a reasonable economic significance.

The parameters of the 90 years since the elasticity of electricity compared to average ("Eighth Five-Year" period the average coefficient of elasticity of 0.85 from 1994-2001 addition to the elastic coefficient of 0.27 in 1998, the other located in the [[0.58, 1.37) this range), is clearly smaller, which further proved the power of information technology development has a smaller elasticity of demand. shows the development of information technology has a substitution effect: the more development, 'the more dependent on electricity less. This may result from the development of information technology has brought a new industrial structure, especially the optimization of industrial structure from the traditional long-term dependence of the iron and steel industry, chemical products and fuel, thereby reducing the consumption of electricity and other substances. Thus, in countries to develop the information industry, improve the social background of information to predict the level of electricity demand, the need to consider the impact of information technology development.

2.2 General Index with a National Information (NII) to examine the relationship between
China in July 2002 issued by the national informatization index system is suitable to domestic conditions, more authoritative information on methods of measurement. National Bureau of International Information Centre of Statistics of China to use this method of measurement information and the region 1995-1998 of the total index and the index of the various elements of information, more objective and scientific evaluation of the area of information and the level of development of early .2004, National Bureau of International Information Statistics Center of the original calculation method has been revised, and calculates the 1999-2001 National Information and the region index and growth rate.

As a result of different economic size, population, quite different, therefore, compared with the total electricity consumption, per capita electricity consumption index more accurately reflect the level of a region's electricity situation, but also with the level of information reflecting the region's information technology index has more comparable. Therefore, we use per capita electricity consumption index, and the level of information reflecting the region's information technology index data for analysis.

1999-2001 level of information in all regions throughout the country index and per capita electricity consumption as shown in Table 5.

Download free papers reposted elsewhere http://www.hi138.com the available time series data too (only 3 years), is therefore difficult to use time series analysis is also difficult to use a common international panel of data ( Panel Data) analysis. Here, the main use of cross-sectional data, the overall average level of information sought and the relationship between per capita electricity consumption.

First, two pairs of years were calculated 1999,2000,2001 correlation between data series were 0.7762,0.7697, 0.7819, which can be seen that the level of information and the per capita electricity consumption index showed a positive correlation, from both The plot of the trend (Figure 4 data in 2001 for example) can also be seen. This shows that the higher the level of information areas, the per capita consumption level is often higher areas, and vice versa.


Next, we determine the front based on a linear regression model is as follows:
y = a + bx + ��
Where: y said that per capita electricity consumption
x said emergency Index Information
that random errors ��
Using SPSS for OLS estimation of these data are the results shown in Table 6.


Table 6 shows that the coefficient of determination R2 and adjusted R2 were 0.60 or so, the degree is 30, the critical value of F0.01, = 7.56, three regression equations were greater than the critical value of F, indicating that the overall linear regression equation relations in the 99% level significantly established. Also, in addition to the constant coefficient a did not pass the t test, the first coefficient h, t values were more than t0.005 = 2.750, shows that the variable information NII index as explanatory variables in the acute 99% level is significant. The model shows that information technology index increased by 1 percentage point, per capita electricity consumption increased by about 60-80 percentage points.

It is noteworthy that, with the development of information technology, information level, from 1999 to 2001, the equation coefficients h a tendency to increase (as reflected in the graph, the slope of the increase year by year): from 1999 74.1563 65.612 to 2000 years and then in 2001, 81,4242, that information urgently index increased by 1 percentage point, per capita electricity consumption to increase, respectively, 65.612, 74.1563, 81.4242 points. This shows that, with the information technology development, China's present per capita electricity demand rising trend. This may be because our country is still in the early stage of development of information, low levels of information technology, information industry to develop the information industry in the period, while the consumption of information products lead to three production and living consumption is rising, and thus boost demand for electricity. This is reflected in the current conditions, the information of the income effect (ie, the development of information technology to bring comprehensive economic and social development, thereby pulling the power consumption) more than the substitution effect described earlier, that the current development of information technology led to the growth in electricity demand. Links http://www.hi138.com Research Papers Download