Anhui Foreign Trade and Economic Growth Analysis

Abstract: Foreign trade has a role in promoting Economic growth is, scholars have different opinions. As an inland province of Anhui, export-oriented economy is low, the slow development of an open economy, and therefore the study of Anhui Province's foreign trade to Economic growth more meaningful role The article first from the qualitative point of view a brief description of Anhui Province's foreign trade situation, followed by empirical analysis from the perspective of the Anhui Provincial Foreign Trade and Economic Growth, Anhui Province, said Economic growth and foreign trade long-term stable relationship exists, but the foreign trade of oriented Economic growth is not obvious, the last on this basis to promote development of foreign trade shows, Anhui recommendations.

Keywords: foreign trade, economic growth, status, analysis, policy recommendations

I. INTRODUCTION
With China's reform and opening to the mainland by the coastal countries to accelerate and "Rise of Central China" strategy, Anhui Province, the location advantage gradually. Anhui Province, is the depth of the Yangtze River Delta region and the hinterland, the coastal developed areas in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai adjacent to a province as the most reform and opening up, Anhui import and export volume in 1978 to less than $ 10 million development in 2008 of $ 4.18 billion, an average annual growth rate of nearly 25% of exports in GDP by 1978 was 0.1% to 5.7% in 2008 to .2008 GDP reached 887.4 billion yuan the province, the annual import and export volume reached 20.435 billion U.S. dollars, the actual utilization of foreign Investment reached 3.489 billion U.S. dollars, export-oriented economy increased rapidly to 17.07%, but the current export-oriented economy in Anhui Province is also at a low level, not only far below the national level of 69.6%, and total annual imports and exports account for only 0.7%, showing that, compared with the national, Anhui Province's foreign trade exports proportion of GDP per capita were significantly lower, the gap between the development of foreign trade is still relatively large.

To this end, Anhui provincial government's opening up as the main strategy of the Investment as an economic priority of the strategic thinking of the work, but the foreign trade of Anhui Province has a role in promoting economic growth is, and how to promote the role of size, How to promote the development of foreign trade of Anhui Province, Anhui Province, which is foreign economic and trade issues must be addressed, but also the purpose of this study lies.

Second, the Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in the literature review
(A foreign trade and foreign economic growth on discussion of the relationship
First, the "promotion of foreign trade" theory. The theory is the founder of the British classical economist Adam Smith, he suggested, is to promote the development of the division of labor productivity, a major factor in long-term growth, but the degree of division of labor is limited by the scope of a strong market constraints.'s foreign trade is a significant extension of the market sign, and thus the expansion of foreign trade must be able to promote the deepening division of labor and productivity, accelerate economic growth.

Second, the "foreign trade has nothing to do" on its main points are: the short term, a country's economic growth depends on Investment demand, consumer demand and net export demand three factors, but if the supply from the long-term perspective, growth factor is a major factor in the increase in supply and total factor productivity into two categories, and foreign trade does not matter.

Third, the "foreign trade pessimism," the main point is that free trade is not conducive to economic development, especially in developing countries is not conducive to economic development: free trade will intensify the deterioration of terms of trade of developing countries, foreign trade of developing countries appear and the balance of payments deficit, is not conducive to developing the use of resources and industrial development, free trade and specialization of production decision is unfavorable to developing countries, may lead to greater international inequality. Therefore, developing countries often need to take protective measures, re-arrange Investment and allocation of resources.

(Two domestic foreign trade and economic growth for discussion of the relationship
Since reform and opening, the rapid development of import and export trade has been regarded as China's economic growth "engine", but there are different voices, for example, Zhang Ji, et al (1999 so that "the trade surplus to GDP growth was negative between related, "Peng Fuwei (1999 proposed" net exports to economic growth is often associated with economic growth trend was in the opposite direction to run, "and so on.

With the relevant domestic foreign trade on economic growth impact analysis become more sophisticated, more and more scholars on this issue have put forward their views: Li Jian (1998 outlines the role of exports on economic growth, Zhang Mingyu (1999 believes that the economic take-off process, the exports showed strong growth impetus, since the reform and opening up, economic growth in imports was more effective, inspiring and Jiangcui Xia Xu (2002, through empirical analysis of China's foreign trade and economic growth between a very strong correlation, claim both the import trade and export trade.

Third, Anhui Foreign Trade and Economic Growth Analysis
(A selection of data
This data is selected from the "China Financial Yearbook>> and <<Anhui Statistical Yearbook>> sample data for the year 1990-2007 in Anhui Province of data (see Table 1.

(B cointegration test
To analyze the growth of foreign trade and economic relevance, assuming other factors remain unchanged for economic growth or impact is stable, based on the GDP as the dependent variable, respectively, total imports and exports, exports and imports amounted to arguments cointegration test. with Y represents GDP, X said that total imports and exports, X1 said exports, X2, said imports, with Eviews5.0 software cointegration test (see Table 2.

Cointegration equation is:
Y =- 1098230 +66365.45 * X1-66322.76 *
X2 +66357.35 * X +994 * T
X = 6.29-1.02 * X1-0.99 * X2 +669 * T
Table 2 shows, Anhui economic growth (GDP and exports, imports, import and export between the existence of long-term equilibrium relationship. Cointegration equation also shows that economic growth and export, import and export between the changes in the same direction, showing a relationship between the description of Anhui economic growth process there are significant "trade driver" signs. Links to free download http://www.hi138.com (three Anhui import and export volume growth and GDP growth rate correlation
Shown in Figure 1, the total import and export of Anhui Province, Anhui Province, the annual growth rate of GDP growth rate with no significant interdependence, which means that the import and export of Anhui Province, although GDP growth has impact, but not decisive effect, indicating the need for further development of foreign trade of Anhui Province, Anhui Province, in order to promote economic development.

Fourth, the development of Anhui Province's foreign trade policy recommendations
(I optimize the export structure
Anhui export structure is not reasonable, but not free from relying on primary products, simple processing, in order to win the amount of the traditional model, still in the extensive number of growth-oriented development. Enhance the slow export of manufactured goods, machinery and electronic products, high-tech products such a high share of low value-added exports, international market competition is weak, and did not form a diversified export market, it is difficult to effectively avoid the situation changes in the international situation the impact on exports, therefore, to optimize the export of Anhui Province structure and mechanical and electrical products to expand the export of high-tech products and promote export trade continued and healthy development.

(Two active and effective use of foreign capital, improve the quality of foreign Investment
Investment as the economy continues to be the most important task to promote the province's total foreign Investment on a larger span, the quality has improved significantly. The international industry transfer and promotion of the province's industrial structure and upgrade to better combine efforts to improve on foreign technology and management of digestion, absorption, innovation, foreign Investment has played at a higher level of economic and social development of Anhui Province, the positive role.

(Three to cultivate new growth points of exit
More and more statistical data and Research results show that small and medium private economy has become the strength to dominate the speed of economic development an important indicator of regional economic disparity is mainly reflected in the small private economy, but small and medium sized private enterprises in Anhui Province relatively low level of development , did not play their due role in the Government's policy to support SMEs will be put in place, and vigorously promote the healthy development of SMEs, to guide small and medium private enterprises "going out", to cultivate new export growth, and thus boost the economy of Anhui Province development.

(D use of regional advantages, the development of the economy in Anhui Province
Anhui Province is located in the hinterland of East China's economic sector, with a good industrial base, the Investment costs are relatively low in the context of economic globalization, the world's manufacturing base in the forward shift to China, the eastern coastal areas in the industry is to west gradient transfer, Anhui Province should take full advantage of its geographical advantages and comparative advantages, and actively integrate into the Yangtze River Delta economic circle, the learning experience of neighboring developed provinces and cities to achieve a greater range, higher levels of participation in domestic international economic exchanges and cooperation, to expand the space of Anhui in the domestic market and maintain strong economic demand for the ability to accelerate development and promote its economic development.

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