Chinese residents' consumption structure and the empirical relationship between international trade analysis

[Abstract] select 1979-2008 measured in statistics regression analysis to explore the structure of International Trade on the consumer's results showed that: the export of urban residents' consumption structure (Engel coefficient that) has hindered the upgrade, import of the town upgrade of consumption structure can promote. The International Trade on China's consumption structure of rural residents was not significant.

[Keywords:] the consumption structure, International Trade, ADF unit root test, cointegration test; Granger causality test
[CLC] F740 [Document code] A [Article ID] 1005-6432 (201110-0145-02

1 Introduction

Consumption theory and empirical Economic circles at home and abroad has been a major Research focus, Research focus and findings vary. In recent years, the academic community began to Research and analysis of International Trade on the impact of consumer demand from the relationship between total see Lin Yongsheng, Zhang Shengling (2006) that increase the level of imports would have a positive impact on domestic consumption and the use of empirical data come to our 1991-2005 year, China's imports of consumer goods increased by 1 percentage point would increase domestic consumption .699 percentage points. Xu Lu (2010) with 1990-2006 statistics, China's per capita consumption and import and export trade, the empirical correlation analysis showed that there is a positive correlation between the two. I use OLS estimation method for regression, because 1979-2008 consumption data in China with disposable income data, data import and export volume between the different order of a single whole, we can see that the variable non-stationary time series, likely spurious regression.

In the consumption structure, not much Research. Hu Yanping (2009) Guangdong 1979-2006 by empirical analysis of data obtained, changes in import and export of consumer change is the reason, the role of imports to a large number of Agriculture consumption of the impact of exports is greater than the non-agricultural consumer, rather than agriculture, the consumer is greater than the impact on imports of agricultural consumption.

International Trade on China's consumer demand is significantly affected? If it does, is the mechanism through which play a role? These are still worth exploring. This paper attempts to Chinese residents' consumption structure and a preliminary analysis of international trade relations.


2 Theoretical framework and econometric model

Consumption structure refers to the various forms and content spending in the proportion of total spending, and the relationship between them in this Article, we use the Engel coefficient to reflect the structure of consumption (food expenditure in total household expenditures weight). Engel coefficient is too large, will inevitably affect other consumer spending, pArticularly those affecting the development of information, enjoy the information increases, the limit consumption level and consumption quality. Engel coefficient decreases, usually indicates that improved living standards, consumption structure improvement.

The most direct impact on the consumer factor is the level of income, other things being equal, increase in income will cause consumption spending increased revenue to increase the consumption structure will also affect the specific performance of high-income household's food expenditure to total expenditure lower proportion.

The impact of the consumption structure of import and export mechanism is more complex interaction between them, there is a causal relationship between each other, first, by a country's imports of disposable income and consumption structure effects also affect the consumption structure, for example, with China's income increase of foreign imports, especially for high-end products will increase demand for consumer durables, or sometimes, the consumer's "demonstration effect" will be very clear, and gradually lead the upgrade of consumption structure and secondly, to consider China's export sector to absorb a lot of labor, the increase in exports driven by people's income levels increase, the change in consumption structure. In addition, the export sector production and marketing of quality products will have a "spillover effect", and thus indirectly affect the consumer structure.

Therefore, we can build influence the measurement of the consumption structure of urban and rural residents equation.

2.1 Model assumptions
ECT said the Engel coefficient of urban residents, ECR that the Engel coefficient of rural residents; DIT that the disposable income of urban residents, the unit one hundred million yuan, DIR said that rural residents' income, the unit one hundred million yuan, IM, said imports, unit one hundred million yuan, EX, said exports, Unit one hundred million yuan, C is constant. This data comes from <<60 years of New China Statistical Yearbook>> Measurement analysis software used Eviews5.0. Since 1979, the Engel coefficient of urban residents lack the statistics, this paper, the 1978's.

2.2 variable stationarity test
Before using OLS regression analysis, in order to ensure the return of validity, the request data is stable, so we first of all variables the ADF unit root test, as all variables were significant changes in the time series trend, taking into account the cross-sectional examination linear time trend away from the item and item. test results in Table 1: Links to free download http://www.hi138.com
Table 1 ADF test results show that the 5% significance level, test each variable t values ​​are greater than the critical value, we can not reject a unit root hypothesis, the performance of non-variable smooth. And conducted the first-order differential treatment of the variables are passed the test.

2.3 Cointegration test
Stationarity test for the variables we can see, although ECT, ECR, InDIT, InDIR, InIM, InEX their non-stationary time series, after a first-order differenced stationary series can be considered, that I (1), then cointegration Inspection:
(1) ECT and lnDIT, lnDIR, lnIM, lnEX the co-integration test
On the type of residuals to separate that out, test equation Δφt = @ φt-1 + ηt, and then test the smoothness of the residual sequence, using the ADF unit root to test, test type with no intercept term and constant term . test unit root null hypothesis is that the residual coefficient is zero. test results showed that: 1% significance level is greater than the ADF t-value -2.6471 -2.9754 statistics, we reject the null hypothesis that the residual sequence is stationary . Therefore, we conclude that, after the first difference of ECT and lnDIT, lnIM, lnEX cointegration relationship exists between. This shows that the consumption structure of urban residents and urban residents' income, imports and exports between the long-term equilibrium relationship.

(2) ECR and lnDIR, lnIM, lnEX the co-integration test
As the coefficient of each variable did not pass the significance test, we believe that rural residents' consumption structure and lnDIR, lnIM, lnEX not significant between.

2.4 Granger causality test
Determine the ECT, lnDIT, lnIM, lnEX cointegration relationship between, we then Granger causality test, lag selection 3 test results in Table 3:

3 Conclusion

1979-2008, China's consumption structure of urban residents with disposable income, a significant impact on import and export between the first, the increase in disposable income for consumption structure upgraded the role of promoting, lnDIT each additional one percentage point, ECT 0.1627 percentage points lower results in line with our expectations. Second, the import and consumption structure of urban residents were significantly affected, but there is no Granger causality between the two relationships. lnIM one percentage point increase, ECT reduced 0.0716 percent, which may be Because the improvement of the consumption structure of urban residents in pArt caused by the changes in the structure of imports, namely the proportion of total imports of non-food growing, we can combine the introduction of import structure data to verify the hypothesis. Third, the export of the consumption structure of urban residents have a significant effect: lnEX one percentage point increase, ECT increase 0.1582 percent, and 10% significance level, lnEX change is caused by ECT changes Granger cause.

As the characteristics of China's export-oriented economy, the export structure of China's consumer impact of two aspects: First, the increase in exports driven by the increase in income to improve consumption structure, which is the "income" effect, the second is the export (foreign consumer demand) domestic consumption of the "crowding out" effect from the estimated equation of view, the total effect is not conducive to the export performance of Chinese urban residents' consumption structure upgraded.

As the consumption structure of rural residents can not be estimated equation by the coefficient test of significance, that changes in consumption structure of rural residents and rural residents 'income, there is no obvious relationship between imports and exports, import and export trade that is not significantly affect rural residents' consumption structure, which may and urban-rural dual Economic structure of China's deeper causes.

References:
[1] Liaocheng Lin, Qing Xuemei based cointegration theory of China's macro-consumption function analysis [J]. Economic Science, 2005 (1)
[2] Lin Yongsheng, Zhang Shengling. On the import trade of consumption and investment to promote the role of [J]. International Trade, 2006 (5)
[3] Hu JP. Consumption, international trade and Economic growth of Guangdong [J]. International Economics and Trade Research, 2009 (5)
[4] Xu Lu. China's consumer spending and import and export trade related empirical analysis [J]. Productivity Research, 2010 (7)

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