On China's tourism "tide phenomenon" early warning and prevention

[Abstract] Article based on the "tide phenomenon," the general mechanism of the Tourism industry "flood" occurs and the special nature of the basic logic that have occurred in China's Tourism investment in the local "flood", and through supply and demand situation of pre-travel negotiations, the Chinese travel industry overall, "tide phenomenon" early warning. Tourism "tide phenomenon" of prevention to the transformation of government functions as the key Tourism, Tourism development in order to optimize the basic model as the fundamental.

[Keywords] "tide phenomenon", tourism, excess capacity, to prevent

1 "tide phenomenon" to explain the proposal and

As economic terms, "tide phenomenon" is Professor Lin Yifu first proposed in 2007, he said: a rapid development stage of the developing countries, industrial upgrading, companies want to invest in the technology matures, market already exists in the world chain within the industry, it is easy for new and promising industry to reach a consensus, prone to many companies as an investment, like waves, wave after wave of a flock to the same industry, began to appear in every wave Each company has high expectations of their investment and financial institutions in the "herd behavior" under the influence of these investment projects are also willing to give financial support, but wait until the completion of each firm's investment, inevitably there will be serious excess capacity, a large number of loss of business bankruptcies, bank bad debts spiraling serious consequences.

After the global financial turmoil, including China, many economies have clearly exposed the serious problem of excess capacity, the "tide phenomenon," the follow-up study increased Hu Nan pointed out that the existence of excess liquidity is the "tide" occurs One of the conditions. Gang of the "tide" phenomenon industrial risk and financial risk transfer mechanisms between government depArtments as well as coping strategies. Wan glory so that the investment tide will increase inflation in the short term, will be induced in long-term deflation. Lin, Wu and Mao, Xing Yiqing further a mathematical model of "tide phenomenon" and the overcapacity of the formation mechanism of the model's basic properties are: (1) when their actual number is larger, will send the production of excess capacity, (2) At this point the company actual production output of smaller, underutilized capacity, (3) With the increasing number of businesses, market competition, lower prices; (4) With the increasing number of businesses, business sales returns, (5) loss of business may be bankrupt. industry external environment, the impact of excess capacity is as follows: (1) With the building cost increases, increase the likelihood of excess capacity, (2) With the price elasticity increases, the probability of excess capacity increase, (3) industry better prospects for a consensus of excess capacity will be more likely to occur.

The above research results, can "flood" occurs in the general mechanism outlined in Figure 1.

Be noted that the "tide phenomenon" is based on the investment in developing countries, including China, "tide" severe and frequent reality put forward. "Tide phenomenon" linked with excess capacity and could price, employment, economic growth impact on macroeconomic performance, etc. The theory does not negate the "individual rational investment", on the contrary, that "the prospects for the industry to predict and correct consensus" is the "tide" occurs the origin, so the "tide phenomenon" in a certain extent independent of external conditions and the industry cycle fluctuations.


2 tourism "flood" occurs and the special nature of the basic logic
Theorists of the "tide phenomenon," the specific concerns and more concentrated in the steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other basic industries, with little analysis of the service industry so far, no one has the "tide phenomenon" linked with tourism. Instead of is that the government, tourism, academia and industry to call for increased investment in tourism more and more voices, but if you keep a cool head, not difficult to find in China, tourism and other industries exist that "tide phenomenon" The logic may be ( shown in Figure 2).

First of all, the tourism industry with mature technology, product market already exists in the world industrial chain occur within the other three "tide phenomenon," the basic conditions. Tourism is economic development and social progress, the inevitable product of the long term, the growth in tourism demand is certain, therefore, it is easy to correct the prospects for the tourism industry consensus because of the tourism industry to create economic, social, cultural, environment, and many other positive effects, the urgent need for transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, service-oriented economy, the era of globalization, the Government will place higher expectations of tourism, tourism is bound to give a variety of policy support, thus making the whole social consensus on the future of the tourism industry to become more strong and determined.

In developing countries, the general economic growth as the main functions of government. Intervention and direct pArticipation in economic development, a higher degree of inappropriate policies and management boost the "tide phenomenon" occurred in China, due to state-owned land system, the majority of tourist resources with public property, the government plays in tourism development and long-term a leading role, forming a special "tourism government-led model." In this mode, the government is becoming more involved in the tourism industry: on the one hand, for the image of the region, the pursuit of job performance, the Government direct investment in the tourism industry is not only possible, but necessary, the Government showed great desire for investment, through a variety of favorable conditions to attract state-owned enterprises, private capital and international capital into tourism, investment "tide" thus students can be said that the government fully involved in the "tide phenomenon" in the travel industry a special reason.

As a growth industry and strategic industries, the tourism industry needs appropriate development, need to focus investment. Even in certain stages of relative surplus is reasonable, or is difficult to avoid, but can not thus believe that the "tide phenomenon" has nothing to do with tourism, can only say that, in people's perception, in the time dimension degree, the tourism industry to "tide phenomenon" have a greater tolerance. "Tide phenomenon" is linked with excess capacity, and tourism is an investment, "tide" ultimately rely on "supply and demand relationship" to determine, which makes the anticipation of travel demand into the areas of study. Tourism products have not mobility and non-storability, tourism enterprises are highly sensitive to market fluctuations. volume will lead to conflicts and contradictions in the structure of overcapacity. the complex nature of tourism demand, volatility and diversity of features, easy to predict the qualitative and quantitative prediction is difficult, if valid travel significantly lower than investors expected demand, overcapacity will become a reality, the industry is inevitable famine of course, if the inputs (including labor) prices, and environmental pressures, social pressures increase, industry overcapacity and famine will further increase the probability of occurrence. need to point out that the tourism industry "tide phenomenon" occur, the negative impact will be long-term, but not limited to industrial and economic corner, could lead to serious environmental and social problems.


3 China's tourism industry have occurred in the local "tide phenomenon."
In the above theoretical understanding, based on the historical development of China's tourism industry back, we find that China's tourism industry there had been local "tide phenomenon":
- In the middle period of the 1980s, the rapid development of inbound tourism by the lure moving, in major tourist cities hotel investment-intensive, to the late 1980s to early 1990s, many cities in the hotel surplus, both room rates and occupancy rates fall, the formation of industry-famine, and the hotel industry's profitability and industrial quality of the formation of long-term negative impact from 1993 to 1998, the national average hotel occupancy rate decreased year by year, profit margins show the same trend that in 1998 industry-wide losses, National house prices fell by 136%, the average occupancy rate fell by 3%.

- The success of the Shenzhen Splendid China brought sensational demonstration effect, and the temptation of huge economic interests, the 1990s, mushroomed across China as a wide variety of theme parks, according to incomplete statistics, as of 2002, total national development more than 2,500 theme parks, the amount of investment reached 300 billion yuan, 70% loss of these theme parks, 20% fair, only 10% of the profits, and ultimately, like tearing down dominoes, one after another out of business closure. September 2010, the China Tourism Association was held in Changzhou, Jiangsu China theme park in Summit, again confirmed the large-scale Chinese theme park industry "is facing a theme repeated even plagiarism, the low level of creativity, planning and design-based industries, even ahead of development needs, but also must be moderate, otherwise due to "bucket theory" of existence lead to social waste in the indispensable role of government in tourism development, but if the direct investment-profit project, the leading tourism product development are likely to lead to investment "tide" , leading to market distortions and undermine the fairness and efficiency of the rules is recommended that effective control of some local governments' investment-led, "the inner impulse, just to avoid short-term performance, whether behind Hongshuitaotian wrongdoing.

(2) specification management of investment projects
Good prospects for the tourism industry in the event of a "social consensus" on the occasion, the government should strengthen the management of tourism investment projects, to avoid the "flood" risk, first, to set up a unified tourism investment management organizations, to avoid government than many a result of duplication and disorderly development (in reality, the list goes on). Second, the feasibility of investment projects for professional review and evaluation, setting up technical barriers, to avoid unreasonable project to enter the market again, we must strictly implement large-scale investment projects up a reporting system for tourism management agencies to avoid duplication between regions and vicious competition, and finally, to investigate violations of law strictly control the investment behavior, to ensure as many businesses and projects in the legal, regulated system.

(3) to enhance the total information services functions
Lin Yifu, who said, "and compared to individual enterprises or financial institutions, government for the total number of enterprises within the industry, supply and demand, capacity utilization and investment, credit and other information with total information superiority, and, with a total collection of information Typical external, should be provided as government services. "that the Government should" establish an information distribution service system, the role of the government's total information superiority, and set about establishing identification, assessment of excess capacity of the system. "This explanation and suggestions are very suitable for people with comprehensive tourism in the context of the great development of tourism, the tourism sector at all levels of government should be positive, timely, detailed information gathering and dissemination, suggesting that the risk of overcapacity, to ease investors because of incomplete information and coordination problems caused by investment bias, the market allocation of resources to better play the basic role in ensuring healthy and sustainable development of tourism.

(4) to strengthen the adjustment of industrial structure and industrial organization
Tourism has many branches, the branch of the association between the quantity and quality to form the internal structure of relations between tourism, the tourism industry overcapacity can be expressed as either a surplus, it may appear to be a structural surplus (including the structural imbalance of the product) Therefore prevention "tide phenomenon" policy with the needs of the industrial structure in the play, while the total benefits of information services, tourism, the government should promptly determine the "long board" and "short board", using various means (such as practiced in Singapore "license" system), suppression, "long" up "short" to achieve balanced development, while optimizing tourism industry organizations to actively support the development of tourism enterprise groups, by increasing the concentration gradually increase the size of the economic barriers to market entry, inhibiting investment tide.

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5.2 change the basic mode of tourism development
(1) from advanced development to embedded development
As the inbound tourism from the stArt, China's tourism industry established in the beginning of the onset of the development of advanced basic strategy, tourism, local economy has shown in relation to socio-economic "free" of the mid-.1990, domestic tourism has been encouraged and supported, because the domestic huge demand, short supply significantly, advanced the idea of ​​development of tourism not only continue to be used and be strengthened. till the 21st century, tourism supply and demand relations have undergone a qualitative change in the pattern of supply exceeding demand in general was, but ahead of development thinking is still deeply rooted in the tourism economy did not fall free of the increasing manifestations of severe social and economic empowerment beyond the local level and the large investment projects and Artificial "high end" blind pursuit of the project. only in the context of limited contact author investment amounting to billions of dollars or even hundreds of billions of even a large number of proposed tourism project in county government district, capital-intensive subject area, tourist resort after another, known as "super star" luxury hotel, facing the wealthy class of the club is widely popular. There is no need, compared with developed countries, China's tourism industry has a strong "complex projects", re-drive, re-size, heavy construction, in general, appeared to be very "hard", Artificial of a strong sense, many parts of the increasingly high ticket prices, reduced tourism economy tickets economic view of China has become the world's largest economy, the domestic tourism market with the dual structure of inbound tourism market decline significantly, the shortage of tourism in general has been been resolved, I believe that tourism should be abandoned the traditional model of development ahead, turn embedded development, and tourism economic initiative that is embedded in socio-economic system, re-use, emphasis on the environment, weight facilities, dependence on natural and cultural heritage, rural mining community resources , emphasizing the integration of industry, highlighting the added value of tourism. This shift can not only effectively curb investment "tide phenomenon", but also help the tourism industry to play a real "catalyst" function and overall drive to achieve sustainable development goals.

(2) from scattered development to regional development
Tourism is essentially a demand-driven industry, its layout should be determined by the market, rather than plan a priori because of the existence of administrative and local government-led force of strong, long-term development of China's tourism industry showed the characteristics of regional division , spatial structure lends fragmented, redundant construction are common. Administrative Region has long been barriers to multi-criticized, but the crack is not easy. Currently, the national advocate regional co-ordination concept of development, and issued a series of intensive regional development strategy, the National Tourism Administration efforts to promote regional development strategy working with the tourism industry, tourism provides the basis for regional security on the other hand, with the rapid improvement of traffic conditions, especially the inter-city rapid transit system planning and construction, the regional tourism market forces will be strong support , closed, split, scattered local centers will be no doctrine to survive. Regional development model to replace the local decentralized development model, good for tourism investment norms, focus and coordination to prevent "tide phenomenon." Of course, this process will not happen overnight, free movement of factors of production to promote tourism, regional tourism development mechanism in depth, the establishment of tourism planning and management of cross-platform administrative and other corresponding measures is necessary.

(3) encourage competition shifted from the pursuit of effective competition
This is for the tourism industry in terms of overall management objectives in the solution of the problem of shortage of supply, the main task facing China's tourism industry is to promote the industry to upgrade and improve the quality of its industry, building a world tourism power. Analysis of China's tourism statistics over the years, can be found, with the scale of growth in tourism hospitality and tourism growth rate of fixed assets, such as the size of the index compared to the tourism industry profit margins, average labor productivity and other quality indicators improved slowly. use of industrial economics, this phenomenon when and market structure - tourism market concentration is too low, the market structure of atomic result of excessive competition and inefficient allocation of resources. refers not only to upgrade the tourism industry to upgrade the product structure is more important is to achieve the upgrading of industrial organization, so tourism management from the size of the overall objective should be to encourage the growth phase of the competition to benefit the pursuit of effective competition in the growth stage, the formulation of industrial policy should give more consideration to support the expansion of firm size and scale of the proportion of enterprises in the industry. As mentioned above, This change means that the barriers to entry increase, to reduce the "tide phenomenon of" probability of occurrence.

(4) from the experience and management to knowledge management
This is for the purposes of tourism management. Clearly, the only way to achieve the management changes, the above three areas to achieve real change is possible in the experience of the management mode, path dependence, investment and blind obedience, imitation copy, low-level redundant , extensive management, the drawbacks are unavoidable, will have the absolute dominance of capital, while knowledge management talent, point for research, education, training and innovative practical emphasis on investment, "tide" has inhibitory effect, which is no detailed theory.


6 Conclusion and discussion

6.1 Preliminary conclusions
(1) "tide phenomenon" is based on the economies of developing countries made long-term observation of practice, it has a highly relevant, explanatory power and value, suitable for the analysis of China's tourism industry.

(2) the basic logic level, the tourism industry "flood" occurs specificity is reflected in: ① the government's direct investment or to over-stimulation of investment is extremely important to pursue the cause, ② effective high travel demand growth is expected to enlarge the "tide phenomenon", ③ input prices, especially prices of labor will increase the tourism industry overcapacity, ④ tourism "tide phenomenon," the negative impact of further spread to the social and environmental areas.

(3) China's tourism industry have occurred in the local investment "tide" and the structural overcapacity, there is now widespread emergence of the "tide phenomenon" may need to be highly vigilant.

(4) Prevention of tourism "tide phenomenon" is the key to change the government's tourism functions, and the need to radically change the basic pattern of tourism development, including the establishment of an embedded model, regional model, the effective mode of competition and knowledge management.

6.2 Further discussion
(1) China's tourism "tide phenomenon of" early warning, prevention research, sustainable development of China's tourism industry should be one of the study.

(2) the lack of relevant statistical data, this article on China's tourism industry "tide phenomenon of" early warning research, using the method of observation plus theory of deduction. If we can get real-time detailed statistics of tourism investment, further research should be the direction of the quantitative analysis development.

(3) tourism "tide phenomenon," the urgent need for further theoretical research, in particular, need to detect its occurrence and mechanism of transmission of micro-level.

(4) China's tourism industry "tide phenomenon" in prevention research, involving a lot of tourism, fundamental issues, themes and limited space, this paper simple. Nevertheless, still some specific policy recommendations, such as: the coming period, Government still attaches great importance to the development of inbound tourism, the urgent need to improve tourism statistics and information management technology, to actively promote the knowledge economy, tourism, tourism leader in the integration of research should be government and tourism enterprises, universities and academic institutions rather than

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