Gray prediction model based on logistics and demand forecasts in Guangxi

[Abstract] The use of gray GM (1,1) prediction model theory, according to the statistical data to establish the logistics demand model and the scale of Guangxi, logistics needs of the next few years was predicted, to a certain extent, able to quantify development of logistics industry in Guangxi based on the forecast results show a steady increase in Guangxi, logistics demand trend.

[Keywords] GM (1,1) model, the logistics demand, forecast

1 Introduction

Logistics as a product from production to consumption for efficient organization and management methods, is widely considered after following the production and marketing, "the third profit source." Logistics industry in many countries as an important part of the national economy and the process of industrialization in the most Economical mode of service, is developing rapidly worldwide, becoming a huge potential for development of new industries.

Guangxi, the development of modern logistics has excellent conditions one unique port conditions. Gulf port rich in resources, Fangchenggang, Qinzhou, Beihai, Guangxi and the coastal areas of Iron Mountain in Hong Kong constitute a natural deep water port group, with the building of 300 million tons integrated of the great port of natural conditions. Second, the advantage of Guangxi is located in the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area, ASEAN is China's bridgehead and for opening up an important window is the Pan Pearl River Delta Economic circle and the Economic circle the center of the combination of the Southwest Department, is an important transport hub in southwest, to the sea. Third, the political and policy advantage. With the Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA signing of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFIA substantial start, Pan Triangle Economic Cooperation (PECO) promulgation of Guangxi ushered in a golden opportunity for the strategic development of modern logistics addition, Guangxi is the only to enjoy the eastern coastal region, western development and the autonomous provinces of preferential policies in three areas This development of modern logistics in Guangxi from other provinces does not have to create a good policy environment.

In the modern logistics planning process, the logistics requirements analysis is a very important part by logistics analysis, logistics services can ensure that the relative supply and demand balance, and social logistics activities to maintain high efficiency and effectiveness of Guangxi Government determined the North Bay Economic Zone of China - ASEAN logistics base, business base, manufacturing base and information exchange center. into the northern Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi's economic development will become a focal point of new growth poles would be to build the northern Gulf Economic Zone into the "China - ASEAN logistics base", they must rely on to consider the logistics of the carrying capacity of Guangxi, scientific and reasonable development of a logistics park, the logistics industry can adapt to the needs of economic development in Guangxi.


2 logistics demand the selection of indicators and data

Logistics demand is accompanied by economic development and the emergence and development together, is the industrial and commercial enterprises in economic and social, economic, social and economic activities in various sectors of the individual to meet their production and business, career and life needs to carry out, in the logistics service transportation, warehousing, distribution, circulation and processing of all aspects arising from the ability to pay requirements. logistics logistics demand analysis is an important part of requirements analysis, the metric system, the amount of system and magnitude of value in-kind system. physical quantity indicator system performance and functionality for different aspects of the specific amount of work, such as cargo, freight turnover, inventory, processing capacity, etc. are all indicators of the magnitude of value systems on the logistics aspects of a comprehensive reflection of the value of all services, including logistics costs, logistics revenue, supply chain value-added, etc. As the amount of system indicators easy to measure physical, and easy access to relevant statistics, therefore, generally use the physical volume of demand on the logistics system of indicators to quantify the research from the physical volume index is concerned, although the transport demand is a demand for logistics part, but the process of transport is the most basic logistics activities throughout the logistics process, logistics services is to contact the other link, traffic will inevitably determine the number of warehousing, distribution, handling, packaging and other aspects of how much demand, and , transportation costs account for a large proportion of the total cost of logistics, so that the logistics with freight logistics demand needs to reflect the variation of this paper, characterization of selected freight logistics needs.

Data into too many outdated information will affect the quality of the model, will increase the amount of computation, while too little data will cause the lack of valid information because of China - ASEAN Expo in 2004 and settled in Nanning, Guangxi's economic revitalization development has brought a rare historical opportunity, the Guangxi government to develop the logistics industry as the entry point for economic development, rapid development of logistics industry, therefore, this paper selected Guangxi 2004-2008 cargo based on data to model prediction, the data see Table 1.


3 gray prediction model construction and logistics demand forecasting Links to free download http://www.hi138.com

Changes in demand because of logistics and the impact factors of uncertainty and complexity of features, so we select the gray forecasting model to predict the logistics needs of Guangxi. The use of gray model (GM model for the study of development of the system changes Global observation, analysis and long-term forecasts, the most commonly used first-order differential equations one yuan prediction model GM (1,1, the model requires data with less simple in principle, calculate the amount of moderate, high precision results of a number of advantages.

3.1 Model Selection
3.1.1 Ash formation sequence
Guangxi from 2004 to 2008 the volume of cargo as the original series, will write it as:
X (0) = (x (0 (1, x (0 (2, x (0 (3, x (0 (4, x (0 (5 = (37 118,41 025,
45 454,50 152,58 068
The original sequence obtained for 1-AGO:
X (1 = (x (1 (1, x (1 (2, x (1 (3, x (1 (4, x (1 (5 = (37 118,78 143,
123 597,173 749,231 817
3.1.2 authentic to the original smooth test series
3.1.3 Inspection X (1 is quasi-exponential

4 Conclusion
Using gray prediction model for dynamic logistics demand in Guangxi predicted results show that, Guangxi in the "five" period, the logistics demand is steady upward trend in Guangxi in the "five" during the planning and layout of the logistics industry provides a quantitative basis. Guangxi government should introduce policies related to the logistics industry, to take appropriate measures to ensure the healthy development of the logistics industry.

Main references
[L] Pan Yingying, Song Guoxi. Based on gray system theory Guangxi logistics demand forecasting model [J]. Guangxi Institute of Finance, 2008 (1).

[2] Mobo advance. Gulf Economic Zone in the study of modern logistics development and exploration [J]. Logistics Technology, 2008 (7.

[3] Ma Ping, Yan-Hong Chen. Based on gray system theory Heilongjiang logistics demand forecasting analysis [J]. Logistics Technology, 2010 (3.

[4] Liujun Chang, Wu Tang expensive. Guangxi coastal port development of modern logistics, strategic analysis [J]. Coastal business and Technology, 2007 (12.

Links to free download http://www.hi138.com