Cosmetics, new product development on risk management _ network to write papers

Write papers Network: Abstract: The rapid development in the cosmetics Industry, a high failure rate of new product development, new product development, making risk management as the basis of survival in the development of new cosmetic products based on the analysis process to identify the various risk factors and sort, to be the most important risks, establishing a new cosmetic product development, the overall risk of the risk assessment model, made cosmetics, new product development risk coping strategies, the completion of risk management.

Keywords: cosmetics, new product development, risk management, risk assessment models, risk response strategies

A new cosmetic product development, risk identification
Risk is the possibility of loss and its impact, it contains two variables, the formula can be expressed as: R = f (P, C. Where, R the value at risk, P for the probability of risk occurrence, C on behalf of impact of risk occurrence. VaR is proportional to the size and its variables, the greater the probability or impact, the higher the risk.

The so-called risk management is to identify, measure risk and to take effective measures to deal with these risks in the process. Cosmetics, new product development risk management generally involves several steps: risk identification, risk assessment and risk measures, of which risk identification, risk management basis.

(A new cosmetic product development, sources of risk
The first step in risk identification is to identify risk areas from which, according to the analysis of the U.S. National Industrial Conference that led to the failure of new products, risk factors are: a market analysis is not appropriate, b higher than expected costs, c the product itself is not good, d put in the time properly, e Marketing hinder, f sales force, distribution and Marketing organization is not good. Based on the above empirical data analysis, combined with the development of Marketing theory and cosmetic features, we consider a, d, e, f are market risk, b and c belong to the financial and technical risk, that new product development cosmetics, mainly from the risk of failure three areas: market, technology, finance.

(Two new cosmetic product development, risk indicators
After determining risk areas, risk areas need to find the impact of new product development within the specific risk factors, a risk index system, complete risk identification purposes. Cosmetics, new product development risk index system (as shown below:
Second, cosmetics, new product development risk assessment
Cosmetics, new product development risk assessment is a new cosmetic product development process integrated to determine the various risk factors, classification, evaluation, analysis, including risk assessment and risk evaluation of two aspects. Risk estimate the object is a single risk factor, through qualitative or quantitative methods to get the various risk factors influence the probability of occurrence and the degree of calculated risk value, and in accordance with the value of each risk factor the risk of its sort in order to find the key risks, identify key risk areas. risk assessment for the new product development activities, the overall risk, which is based on the risk estimates with a certain method to determine the overall level of risk in order to make decisions and measures in the development of new cosmetic products risk assessment, we also added to the main risk areas of risk level calculation, after a reasonable choice for the risk measures provide a more comprehensive basis.

(A) based on subjective scoring of the risk assessment model
Subjective scoring is characterized by a combination of qualitative and quantitative, used in modeling the first step, identifying individual risk specifically refers to the development process through risk identification found in the various risk factors, the use of experts' experience or known data to risk of each risk factor in the development process of the probability and impact, to get a single risk value.

At risk to get a single value, to the risk factors for the vertical, horizontal development process to get new product development of the comprehensive score sheet to calculate the overall risk level and risk level of the main risk areas to complete the risk assessment.

1. Determine the value of individual risk, assuming there is a risk factor Ri, in a development process in the probability of occurrence is pi, after the impact is ci, the risk value is ri.

This value defines the method used to describe the probability of occurrence of each risk factor and the degree of influence, and according to the formula value = probability * impact on the risk level to determine the risk value (the following table:
Table 1, a single risk value
2. Evaluation of the overall level of risk, assuming there is a product development activities of m risk factors, the development process must be n-L1, L2 ... ... Ln, then the overall risk score (the following table:
The overall risk of product development activities, the level of t = r / rs, which rs is the biggest risk of the event weights, equal to the value table for each grid value of the maximum number of risks and risk the product.

3. Evaluation of the main risk areas of the level of risk through the table of risk factors can be the size of the order by value at risk, in order to find the main areas of risk. And in the same way the main risk areas calculated level of risk. Links to free download Center http://www.hi138.com
(Two new cosmetic product development, risk assessment
A cosmetics company, intends to develop a new product, experts in the company's internal and external environment analysis, risk assessment by the following table:
On the table, each cell's maximum risk weight is 5 * 5 = 25, the table is no assignment of the lattice are not entitled to weight, the maximum risk weight rs = 25 * 36 = 900, the event overall risk value r = 288. So obtain the overall risk of new product development activity level t = r / rs = 288/900 = 0.32.

According to the value of each risk factor of size, the risk of new product development activities to make a sort (the following table:
Table 4 Risk factors sort of a cosmetics company
By the risk of new product development cosmetics, sort, we can see in first place is the demand forecasts from the market risk, the risk is 69, much higher than other risks. Therefore, the development of new cosmetic products, the main areas of risk from the market, according to the same calculations above, the level of market risk can be calculated as 0.59.

Third, the cosmetics, the risk of new product development strategies
(A new product development, the type of risk response strategies
Risk response refers to the risk identification, evaluation and estimation, considering the overall risk factors, a reasonable risk management ideas and approaches. Risk-coping strategies summarized in the following four categories: risk reserves, risk mitigation, risk transfer and risk aversion.

1. Risk reserve. Risk reserve is smaller when the value at risk, the risk of spending instead of actively dealing with the loss is greater than the risk itself, rather than take positive measures to concerns of a risk-coping strategies.

2. Risk Mitigation Risk mitigation is an active, positive risk-coping strategies, is through a variety of means to reduce the probability of occurrence of risk factors, and to minimize the risk of impact.

3. Risk transfer Risk transfer is the transfer of risk to other people or organizations. Its purpose is not to reduce the risk probability and mitigate the adverse consequences, but by contract or agreement, the risk of accident in the loss of part of the transfer will have the ability to withstand or to control the situation of individuals or organizations.

4. Risk aversion. Risk aversion means that when the risk is too large, choose to give up in order to avoid losses, although risk aversion is a negative strategy, but sometimes it is also a wise choice.

Different risk-coping strategies applied to different level of risk would be two dimensions of risk assessment, that the overall level of risk and key risk areas of the level of risk compared with the baseline level of risk, rational coping strategies (as shown below.

Figure 2 The risk of new product development cosmetics, coping strategies map
The figure, ① risk reserve behalf; ② behalf of risk mitigation; ③ on behalf of risk transfer; ④ risk aversion on behalf of
(B cosmetics deal with the risk of new product development strategy selection
Cosmetics new products based on previous declarations, the overall risk level can be set at 0.6 t0 base by the above calculation has been obtained, cosmetics, new product development market risk level of 0.59, the overall risk level of 0.32. Therefore, according to the Figure for new cosmetic product development, risk mitigation and risk should be taken to transfer the way to reduce risk.

References:
[1] [U.S.] Gary Armstrong, [United States] Philip Kotler. Kotler Marketing Tutorial: 6th edition [M]. Yu Lijun, Beijing: Huaxia Publishing House, 2004.

[2] Lee May Fourth, Meng prosperity Leipei Li. Marketing [M]. Beijing: Mechanical Industry Press, 2006.

[3] Shen Jianming, Zheng Dongliang, Yan planting the project risk management: version 1 [M]. Beijing: Mechanical Industry Press ,2004:1-24.

[4] Wang Aimin, the Marketing of risk management [M]. Wuhan: Wuhan University Press, 2004.

[5] Qi Jiayang. Product development projects on risk analysis [D]. Chinese Journal Full-text database, 2007, (8).

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