On the common method of forecasting human resource needs

Abstract: Human resource forecasting manpower planning is the most important and most complex aspects of one method of forecasting human resource needs a lot of advantages and disadvantages, are commonly used in two basic methods for the use of a comparative analysis.

Keywords: forecasting human resource needs

First, qualitative forecasting methods
1. Management evaluation method. Management evaluation method to predict the most commonly used corporate human resource needs of a subjective prediction method it is senior managers, department managers and Human Resources Commissioner and other personnel with the forecast and to determine the human enterprise in a certain time resources. management evaluation method can be divided into bottom-up and top-down lower estimation higher estimates and French. lower estimation method is the first by the line managers based on their production capacity, staff turnover, etc. forecasters requirements, then report to higher authorities. superior estimation method is based on the organization by senior managers and development strategies and development goals such as changes in business environment forecast staffing needs. the use of management evaluation to predict staffing needs based primarily on: business goals, scale of production, market demand, sales or service size, staffing and mobility. The main drawback of this approach are: a strong subjectivity, and to judge by the judge based on those who Experience a greater impact. This method is commonly used in short-term forecasts and projections will be lower in the estimation method and the combined use of the higher estimation.

2. The status quo projections. The status quo prediction method is a short-term forecast for the easiest prediction method. This method assumes that the organization and structure of the total number of employees is expected to fully adapt to the needs of managers only need to arrange for appropriate personnel at the right time to fill a vacancy within the can, such as promotion and career changers replacement jobs.

3. Experience in forecasting method, and Experience forecasting method is a use of existing information and data, based on past Experience, combined with the actual characteristics of the enterprise, the enterprise needs to predict the future employees of a simple prediction method of this prediction method is based on the demand for human resources and a minor factor in a relationship that exists between the assumptions of this approach is entirely because forecasters rely on the Experience and ability to predict the results of accuracy and precision can not be guaranteed, usually only for short-term forecasts.

4. Scene description method. Scene description method is the company's human resources department of the organization's future strategic goals and related factors hypothetical description, analysis and synthesis, and human resources needs to make a variety of options, in order to adapt to and cope with the environment and factor changes the scenario method is usually used to describe changes in the environment or human resources, organizational change when the demand forecast analysis.

5. Micro-integration method using micro-integration method, the organization's various departments according to their units, departments need to predict some future period the demand for a variety of personnel, human resource management planners can forecast the various departments together, formation of the overall scenario of this approach forecasting a top-down arrangement, by the line manager according to the department's business development needs, some people predict future demand, then from the bottom up level by level to report , predict and summarize it for short-term forecasts and the organization's production or service is more stable situation.

6. Work study prediction method. Work study forecasting method is based on specific business of the work content and responsibilities, on the assumption that staff positions suitable post under the premise of safety, to determine their workload, and finally arrive at the required number. Work research is the key to the first prediction method for analysis of scientific work, to write an accurate job description, develop a scientific job employment standards when the company's relatively simple structure, responsibilities clear when the work of analysis and forecasting method is more easy to implement.

7. Delphi method. Also known as experts predict that method, is to invite some experts in the field or an experienced management team using questionnaires or interviews in the form of the company's future demand for human resources analysis, assessment and prediction, and finally reached consensus approach. This approach requires more stringent, in practice, be noted: the number of experts generally less than 30 people, the questionnaire return rate of 60%, in order to ensure the authority and breadth of the investigation, implementation of the method must obtain high-level support, while providing sufficient information to experts and information to ensure the quality of judgments and projections, questionnaire design should be a prominent theme title, a clear intention to ensure that experts from the same point of view to understand the problem. This method is suitable for long-term forecasts, the survey can be either individual or group of experts face to face, it can be back to back panel of experts. Face to face manner, possible interactions between experts, inspired by back to back in the form of an authoritative expert can remove the other experts impact, leaving each independent experts to comment. the whole process of the Delphi method can be expressed in Figure 4-4.


Second, quantitative forecasting methods
1. Trend forecasting method. Trend forecasting method is to use the company's history data, based on certain factors, trends, predict the corresponding demand for a certain period of human resources, Trend forecasting method in use are generally required to assume all other factors remain change or the magnitude of change is consistent, often overlooked cycle fluctuations, seasonal variations and random fluctuations and other factors commonly used as follows: Links to free download http://www.hi138.com
(A scatter plot analysis. In this method, companies in the past few years to collect the number of personnel data, and based on these data to plot, the economic activities of enterprises in a number of relationships between variables and trends that come and, If the relationship between the two is based on the company's future business activity estimates to predict demand for the relevant personnel, meanwhile, can be mathematically correct, making it a smooth curve from the curve can be estimated future trends.

(2 power function prediction model The model to consider personnel changes and the time relationship between the specific formula: R (t) = atb, where R (t) the number of employees for the year t, a, b for the model parameters. a, b values ​​from the historical data to determine the number of employees, using nonlinear least squares curve fitting the power function model calculated.

2. Statistical prediction method. Statistical forecasting method is based on past information and data a mathematical model, and thus to predict future trends in a quantitative forecasting methods.

(1 ratio of trend forecasting method of this method by studying the history of statistics in various proportions relations, such as department managers and workers in the sector between the ratio between the number of employees and the ratio of the number of machines and equipment, consider future changes in circumstances estimated the ratio between the forecast period, and then predict the future requirements for all types of employees. This method is simple, the key is the accuracy of historical data and estimates of future changes in circumstances.

(2 a linear regression method. In human resource demand forecasting, if only one factor to consider an impact on demand for human resources, such as the enterprise market, while ignoring other factors, you can use a linear regression method, considering two or more factors affect the demand for human resources, you need to use multiple linear regression method, if a factor with which the demand for human resources is not a linear correlation between the linear relationship, then you need to do a non-linear regression prediction.

(3) econometric model projections. This method first expressed in the form of a mathematical model of the demand for enterprise employees and affect the demand for employees between the main factors, and based on the model and the main factors affecting the variable forecast demand for corporate employees. This method is cumbersome, complex, generally good foundation in the management of large enterprise will adopt.

3. Workload projections. Workload prediction method, is based on historical data, the results of job analysis, first calculate the work per unit of a particular time (such as workload each day (such as production, then production based on future the amount of target (or target services to calculate the total amount of work needs to be done, and then based on a standard conversion of the former human resources required number of this approach is for firms to consider the amount of work and the work done between the number of required human resources relationship to consider is the workload of each employee and the ratio between the enterprise's overall workload. can be expressed as:
The future number of employees required each year the amount of work each year = next / year each employee can complete the work = the future of the annual total working hours / working hours per employee per year
Therefore, the workload is a key part of forecasting method to predict the business workload and total workload of employees when the firm's environment, labor productivity growth is relatively stable, this prediction method is more convenient and predictable effect better.

4. Work quotas prediction method. Labor quota, is working in the unit of work should be completed within the time requirements in the total amount of scheduled tasks known companies, as well as scientific and reasonable work quotas, based on the use of labor law can be more accurately defined predict the demand for corporate human resources. This method can use the formula: N = W / q (1 + R) is calculated. Where, N is the human resource demand, W the total for the plan year mandate, q labor quotas for enterprises to develop, R during the productive sector plans for the coefficient of variation. R = R1 + R2 + R3, which, R1 for the enterprise technological advances in labor productivity coefficient, R2 grounds of experience lead to increased labor productivity coefficient, R3 grounds of age, with increased staff and certain social factors led to the decline in labor productivity factor.

References:
[1] Fang Zhang, He Wei, corporate human resource demand forecasting methods to explore, human resource development, 2005 11.

[2] Zou Lijiang, Analysis of human resource demand forecasting, economic and technical cooperation information, 2010 10. Links to free download http://www.hi138.com