Enterprise Group of supply chain risk identification and evaluation and analysis

Abstract: The development of group enterprises increasingly complex supply chain network structure, supply chain vulnerability and instability brought a lot of risk How to identify and assess risks as the core issue of supply chain management, the article on supply chain risk identification system and classification, analysis of the controllability of the supply chain risk and harm. to build a supply chain risk assessment index system, the value of the improved set of statistical indicators to accelerate the iterative method to determine the weight of established risk probability intervals based on expert estimates of supply comprehensive evaluation of the risk chain model and empirical analysis.

Keywords: supply chain risk, risk identification, evaluation model

1 Introduction Supply chain management is an integrated management ideas and methods is an effective mode of inter-firm cooperation symbiosis International on some of the pioneer such as Toyota, Dell, Wal-Mart, Carrefour and other manufacturers, are due to practice this new management and great success from successful business practices sense, the implementation of supply chain management is to adapt to the 21st century global competition of enterprises an effective way, as the United Kingdom logistics expert Martin Christopher (Martin Christopher) said : 21st century, competition between enterprises is no longer a competition, but the supply chain and supply chain competition.

However, according to the University of Michigan (2003) study found that in the United States about 50% of the enterprises the benefits of supply chain management is not stronger than the traditional buyer-seller relationship, the reason is largely due to business supply chain system can not accurately assess the various risks and management of resulting With products and technology life cycles, globalization of markets, extension of cooperation between enterprises and organizations both inside and outside of the increasingly complex environmental uncertainty increases, etc. will exacerbate the instability of the supply chain and increase their risk. induced by a variety of factors, supply chain generated by the incident and the losses caused by the impact of supply chain operations are huge, so the supply chain risk assessment and management are important.

Domestic and foreign scholars in the supply chain risk identification and evaluation carried out extensive research and received many research results. Kraljic early 1983's procurement portfolio management framework, it has been considered by the external factors of uncertainty and supply disruptions . Smeltzer and Siferd (1998) use transaction cost theory and resource dependency model, from procurement to understand the supply risk management point of view, put forward a pro-active risk management, procurement management is the supply point of view since then, Sheff (2001), Harland (2003), Deloitte (2004), respectively, research from different angles the system of supply chain risk factors and identify the problem. Hallikas (2004) the probability of the event from the perspective of risk, quantitative study of supply chain risk assessment. Some domestic scholars also the risk of supply chain do a variety of categories, and proposed measures various methods of supply chain risk, such as Shi-hua (2003) of endogenous and exogenous risk allocation of risk, late spring East (2007) risk classification system, etc. In 2003, Ding Weidong, etc. evaluation method based on fuzzy supply chain reliability evaluation matrix, Zhou Nanyang (2008) proposed based on OWA operator of the supply chain risk assessment multiple attribute decision making. In sum, most previous scholars risk of a particular aspect of the supply chain and single method of identification and assessment, lack of development from the perspective of enterprise groups, the supply chain risk analysis and assessment of this paper, based on previous research, the enterprise systems group supply chain risk identification, and the corresponding integrated evaluation model and empirical analysis.

2 business group system of supply chain risk identification conglomerates vertical and horizontal extension of industrial chain, the core node in strengthening business position, the release of a number of economic effects, but also for the cumulative risk of the entire supply chain to provide an objective basis, supply chain risk from the within and outside the presence of various uncertainties, it will use the vulnerability of the supply chain, supply chain systems for damage to the upstream and downstream businesses and caused damage throughout the supply chain and loss of supply chain risk identification risk management premise, according to the risks arising from reason, the risk of the supply chain can be divided into two major endogenous and exogenous sources of risk, which mainly produced in the endogenous risk of moral hazard, Information distortion, and limited rationality, while exogenous risk mainly due to political, external economic and natural environment of the mutation.

2.1 Supply chain risk identification endogenous endogenous risk is caused by the supply chain itself the risk of supply chain as an effective mode of cooperation between enterprises, operators and students with the logistics, business flow, capital and Information flow, from beginning to end flow The supply, storage, processing, distribution, distribution and consumption of the whole process, formed around the core business win-win cooperation, complement each other at the same time, each node in the supply chain enterprise as an independent legal entity operating properties, resulting in the supply chain members Inevitably there are potential conflicts of interest between and asymmetric Information, any part of the problem may spread and affect other partners, and thus impact the normal operation of the entire supply chain to generate supply chain risk in the main form of health risk and characteristics in Table 1.

2.2 Risk Identification exogenous exogenous supply chain risk refers to the supply chain uncertainty in the external environment or mutations lead to the risk of any of the supply chain are in a certain environment, market, political, natural and other environmental factors fluctuations or drastic changes will be affected to varying degrees of effective supply chain operations. complex, open systems and supply chain exists between the physical environment, energy and Information exchange, environmental constraints and by the external environment is a reaction to the existence of the supply chain system The premise when the environment negative impact on the supply chain changes, the supply chain system and the balance between the environment will be broken, the normal operation of the supply chain or destroyed by the constraints to generate supply chain risk mainly exogenous risk form and characteristics in Table 2.

3 Supply chain risk evaluation index system of risk identification through the supply chain so that we recognize the Group's supply chain system may exist in various forms of risk, and effective supply chain to prevent potential risks to the Group's supply chain operations may be the benefits of the system impact the the need for supply chain risk effectively to make a scientific assessment of the supply chain through risk assessment is necessary for supply chain modeling approach to quantify the level of risk or estimate, and based on risk level selected supply chain security measures, and ultimately reduce risk control purposes. the supply chain risk assessment, need to establish a rational design, a strong operational risk assessment index system, which can be measured by the indicators, the comparable, you can get the dimensions of different indicators and target group, and is used to fully reflect the risk of supply chain systems there is the possibility of internal and external based on the enterprise system of supply chain risk groups identified in this paper to build the supply chain risk assessment index system as follows:
1) reflect endogenous supply chain risk indicators: trust contract X1, the Information error rate X2, poor procurement rate X3, failure rate x4, delay in delivery rate x5, contract rate X6.

2) reflects the exogenous supply chain risk indicators: price volatility index y1, sales volatility index Y2, emergency warning index Y3.

Links to free download http://www.hi138.com the meaning and assignment of each index as follows:
Contract of trust: trust reflects the level of supply chain contracts before the index reflects supply reliability throughout the supply chain the ability to deliver early or on time. The index value increases, indicating that the credibility of the enterprise supply chain nodes increased, the supply chain system more credible. The index values ​​obtained by the following formula: (in advance or the number of orders completed on time ÷ total orders) × 100%.

Information error rate: the transmission of information reflecting the distortion of the supply chain indicators, supply chain information transmission delay or distortion will show a "bullwhip" effect, supply chain and the degree of distortion of information transmission chain length of the supply chain, enterprise more nodes, the transmission of information distortion level will increase. The index value can be damped by the chain length relationship with the information obtained indirectly.

Poor procurement rate: indicators reflect the effectiveness of procurement, the index value obtained by the following formula: (total purchase bad batch procurement batch ÷ × 100%.

Failure rate: reflect the reliability of logistics indicators, the index values ​​obtained by the following formula: (due to supply disruption and downtime to be expected logistics time ÷ total planned production time product x l00%.

Delay in delivery rate: reflect the reliability of logistics indicators, the index values ​​obtained by the following formula: (number of logistics and distribution delays ÷ total number of logistics and distribution plan × 100%.

Contract rate: Supply chain cooperation mechanism to reflect the level of protection indicators, contract compliance rate cooperation mechanism that is stable and reliable supply chain, partners of high integrity between its value by the following formula: (performance contract number ÷ total number of contracts signed x100%.

Price volatility index: reflects the stability of the materials supply market indicators, the market supplies a specific price index is based on one or a group of specific goods or services from the average price, which reflects the combination of a particular category or a specific commodity or labor price changes in this indicator values ​​obtained by the survey report.

Sales Volatility Index: reflects the supply chain, the stability of the core business sales targets, indicates a steady increase in sales of enterprise customer needs recognition accuracy for its value by the following formula: (calculation period sales / sales base period average volume -1 × 100%.

Emergency warning Index: supply chain system reflecting the extent of the emergency system to build indicators, its value through early warning systems and emergency sound system of investment in conversion obtained.

4 Supply chain risk assessment model and empirical analysis
4.1 evaluation to determine the weight of the supply chain risk assessment is to describe the different dimension of supply chain risk indicators into a dimensionless relative evaluation values ​​and evaluation values ​​given to the combination of these supply chain systems there is a risk overall assessment. As a result of evaluation in the risk assessment of the status of non-equivalence, there must be index of indicators in the empowerment of this paper, an improved set-valued statistics accelerated iterative method, accelerated by increasing the step size, can increase the target weight vector compliance but also improve operational efficiency.

4.2 risk evaluation to determine the average value of the valuation of probability and statistics, each time the experiment is to determine the phase space of a point and if the relaxation phase space will be a subset of the set of values ​​that the statistical test is the classic statistics and fuzzy statistics of a promotion in the risk assessment to determine the corresponding size of the risk experts estimate the value of an interval.

Where Ai is the i-th weight of risk indicators, expert stone i is the i-th risk indicators for the evaluation of the value, F is the overall rating of the risk of supply chain value. F values ​​in the range [O, 1] between scores increased, indicating an increased risk of supply chain systems. This set of supply chain risk level of four standard reference, the corresponding range of F in Table 3.

4.4 Example application object for the application of Shandong Peninsula manufacturing a supply chain system, through comprehensive research applied research data needed basis. In accordance with evaluation procedures, hired seven experts on risk indicators for supply chain optimization and iterative probability interval estimation, the use of Improved speed of set-valued statistics iteration, iteration of the risk indicators for the results in Table 4.

Further, the experts estimated the probability of the risk evaluation range, and according to the formula (3), (4), (5) calculated the integrated supply chain risk probability of each index in Table 5 (including experts divergence.

According to the formula (6) The final calculated sample comprehensive evaluation of supply chain risk value of F = 0. 26, with the reference level of risk control is a Class B standard, indicating that the overall risk of supply chain security in the basic state this end, supply chain management held liable under this calibration weak link in supply chain risk, take the corresponding remedial measures to improve supply chain responsiveness, supply chain system is stable at the level of state safety levels.

5 Conclusion In this paper, the enterprise group of supply chain risk identification and classification system, build a supply chain risk assessment index system used to improve the set-valued statistics accelerated iterative method to determine the weight of the risk indicators, given the risk probability interval estimates based on expert integrated supply chain risk assessment model and methods. Since the acceleration step size increments, to improve operational efficiency, based on the weight vector of risk indicators is more logical and reliability. To establish a certain degree of confidence in the criterion group of experts under the probability of occurrence of the risk indicators described range, the follow the evaluation process from qualitative to quantitative principles of comprehensive and integrated methodology, evaluation results obtained closer to the objective reality and more authoritative, of course, the paper evaluation system versatility and practicality of further study, a reliable method of comprehensive evaluation model is also required to practice in the application for further examination in order to facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of supply chain risk is real business operations management and scientific decision making.

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